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Accueil > Séminaires et conférences > Séminaires, soutenances de thèses et HDR précédents > 2014 > Séminaires 2014 > Le 17 décembre à 11h

Le 17 décembre à 11h

Antoine Strugarek - Self-organized criticality and solar flares : a new path to predict the largest events

Lieu  : Palaiseau, salle de réunion de l’aile 0 (exLIX)

Abstract :
The solar flares energies are known to be distributed like a power-law. This remarkable hierarchy is the trace of fundamental physical processes at the origin of flares. Discrete events of various size distributed over a power-law can be described with the so-called self-organized criticality (SOC) models. Such models are extremely simple, but can nevertheless be related to the magnetic loops in the solar corona where flares are triggered. Using this analogy, I will develop a new class of SOC models that reproduce satisfactorily the solar statistics of flares. Despite their embedded stochasticity, I will show that such models can be used to carry actual predictions of the occurence of large scale events. Combining those models with data-assimilation techniques using the X-ray flux of the Sun observed routinely with the GOES satellites, I will show the possibility to carry data-driven predictions of the largest solar flares with such computationally inexpensive models.


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Tutelles : CNRS Ecole Polytechnique Sorbonne Université Université Paris Sud Observatoire de Paris Convention : CEA
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Exploitant du site : Laboratoire de Physique des Plasmas, Ecole Polytechnique route de Saclay F-91128 PALAISEAU CEDEX
Hébergeur : Laboratoire de Physique des Plasmas, Ecole Polytechnique route de Saclay F-91128 PALAISEAU CEDEX
Directeur de la publication : Pascal Chabert (Directeur)